Local resident points to future scarcity of resources
By Angela Greiner Community Reporter

Hudson - The average price for a barrel of oil in 1998 was $10; now it's over 10 times that, ranging from $105 to $112 a barrel. What does that indicate about oil prices in the next 10 years?

Hudson resident Richard Lawrence is part of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), an international committee of residents, political leaders and companies dedicated to educating and planning for a future with limited energy resources.

"Two and three years ago, none of the top analysts were projecting that oil prices would top $110 a barrel," Lawrence said.

In an eff ort to raise awareness about the pending issue on both local and state levels, Lawrence organized an informational briefing March 31 at the Massachusetts State House. The panel of presenters included Roger Bezdek, co-author of "Peaking of World Oil Production," John Kaufman of the Portland Oregon Energy Task Force, and the two founding legislators from the Connecticut State Peak Oil Caucus.

The event drew a standing room-only crowd of state and local legislators, residents, and representatives of local organizations. Lawrence was pleased by the level of discussion that the event started and hopes that it will help create a Massachusetts Legislative Peak Oil Caucus.

"Much of the state and local long-range planning does not take into consideration the future cost [of energy] and scarce energy supplies," Lawrence said.

For example, organizations like highway departments that are currently expanding roadways should consider the eff ect of fuel costs and scarcity on future traffic projections.

Lawrence explained that current costs have already eliminated the Third-World market for cooking stoves that use oil.

"In countries like South Africa and Egypt, where diesel fuel is used to power generators, they are experiencing rolling brown- and black-outs … They cannot aff ord the increasing prices," Lawrence said.

According to Lawrence, he is less concerned about the amount of oil left than in the ability to extract the oil. Right now, he said, our demand for and production of oil is stable, but as the future demand reaches a peak in what Lawrence expects to be 2012, the amount of oil being extracted will no longer be able to keep up with the demand.

"Existing oil refineries are depleting at rates significantly faster than the new sources of oil can replenish," Lawrence said.

Lawrence's concern about extracting oil is based on large oil sites in Canada and Venezuela that have oil that is difficult and timeconsuming to extract. On paper, the numbers for future supplies are plentiful, but that does not mean that it is accessible.

"If you have a rich uncle and he dies and leaves you a $100 million, one might ask, 'Are you wealthy?'" Lawrence said. "But, if the bank will only give you $50 a week of the $100 million, I ask again, 'Are you wealthy?'"

Lawrence expects that as the supply becomes scarce, the price will continue to rise. With 16 percent of the total energy supply in the United States being used to get food from the field to the table, Lawrence wonders what that will mean for families across the country. He predicted that within the not-so-distant future, the nation will have to prioritize the use of energy by organizations, with the military and the agricultural industry having top priority.