By James M. Arnold, Weather Specialist
Region – It really seems that we can’t catch a break this winter.? Although the next two events seem to be pretty insignificant, anything with even a small amount of freezing rain can be troublesome, particularly when salt and ice melting chemicals are in such scarce supply.
Light snow or a mix of snow and freezing rain will begin in our part of Massachusetts by 2:00 to 3:00 P.M. today and continue until about 7:00 P.M. or so.? There will be little or no accumulation in the Shrewsbury/Worcester area, likely maxing out at an inch or less at most, with ice accretion amounting to only a coating to less than .10 inch. There may be a bit more snow in the higher ground communities to our north and west, where 1 to 3 inches is possible within the same time frame.? Ice accretion from freezing rain will also be a bit greater in those higher locations, although there too it will be relatively small, up to .15 of an inch at most.? Temperatures will hold in the 30s throughout the day.? Should a weak coastal storm develop, amounts could come up just a bit, but I think the odds of that happening are pretty small at this time.? Tonight will remain cloudy to partly cloudy and temperatures will not fall back much, holding in the mid to high 20s to low 30s.? Nearer to the coast snow and ice will not be an issue.
Thursday will again become cloudy and still cold, with temperatures in the 30s to near 40.? Later Thursday into Thursday night the stage could be set for another bout of light freezing rain, as temperatures warm significantly at high levels of the atmosphere but cold air tries to hold at the surface.? If it does we could see a brief period of freezing rain, enough to glaze everything and make roads and sidewalks treacherous for travel.? Again, areas nearer to the coast will avoid ice issues as their temperatures will be high enough to preclude freezing rain. Warm air will win out on Friday and there will also be the chance for significant rainfall throughout much of the day, which could present its own set of problems.? Friday also promises to be quite windy, with southerly winds up to 35 mph in most areas.? Rain and melting snow water from rising temperatures will likely cause urban and street flooding in the usual areas, exacerbated by much of the drainage system being clogged with snow.? A second area of concern is roof loading, as the deep snow will absorb the rain and create a very heavy blanket on many roofs.? Weaker roofs may begin to fail under the added weight of this water laden snow.
Colder air will invade our area over the weekend and much colder air will come in by the middle of next week.? AccuWeather has produced a good graphic outlining the potential timing of the arrival of the colder air, which is seen below.
In the short run I see two possible additional chances of storminess for us next week.? The first would be about Monday, a system that could bring either rain or snow, and maybe both.? I think that one will come our way.? The second chance would be about Wednesday or Thursday, and that would be a snowstorm and possibly a big one.? However, there is an equal chance that the cold air will drive that one out to sea to our south.? More on that later.? The point is that we will be returning to a colder and stormier pattern once again, and likely for the longer term than just for a short term change.
James M. Arnold is a Weather Specialist working with Shrewsbury Emergency Management Agency; town of Princeton; Worcester Emergency Communications and Emergency Management Agency; Southborough Emergency Management Agency; town of Grafton and Wachusett Mountain Ski Area