By James M. Arnold, Weather Specialist
Region – Looking down the road to the first storm of 2015, I see the possibility of a real winter mess with snow, sleet, freezing rain and finally rain for about 12 hours from near midnight Saturday night to around or just after noon on Sunday afternoon. A disturbance will come out of the southwestern U.S. and head to the east and northeast, finally moving through the eastern Great Lakes region. There may also be a weak coastal development but nothing of real concern at this point. There could be a pretty good slug of snow on the front end of this storm, but it will change to mixed precipitation after a potential accumulation of up 2 to 4 inches. There is the chance of a prolonged period of freezing rain should cold air damming set up and keep temperatures below freezing longer, but eventually precipitation will change to all rain in most areas.
Leading up to the storm, the Shrewsbury area will see a period of settled, fair weather into Saturday, with daytime high temperatures in the mid to high 30s and nighttime lows in the low to mid teens. Saturday afternoon will see increasing clouds which will thicken and lower Saturday night. Snow will break out around or just before midnight and mix with or change to freezing rain in the pre dawn hours after an accumulation of from 2 to 4 inches in central Massachusetts. Cold air damming will likely set up and slow the northward progress of warmer air which would yield a somewhat longer period of freezing rain before the eventual change to rain. Rain will continue throughout Sunday morning before tapering off and ending by or shortly after noon.
Snow accumulations will be smallest near and south of the Mass Pike as well as near and to the east of Route 495, and gradually increase to the north and west of these areas. The greatest accumulation will be over the higher ground areas to our north and west along with the most ice accumulation, but even there it will not be particularly noteworthy. The major impact will be to travel conditions, and it could be slippery during the early morning hours until the changeover is complete. Slow clearing will follow later in the afternoon and Sunday night. Early next week will see the return to quite cold and breezy conditions, particularly if there is a thin snow and ice cover. Daytime high temperatures should be limited to the low 20s and low temperatures should sink to about 10 degrees overnight. There is another chance for more stormy weather by the middle of next week.I will have another update tomorrow after the mid day guidance is available.
James M. Arnold is a Weather Specialist working with Shrewsbury Emergency Management Agency; town of Princeton; Worcester Emergency Communications and Emergency Management Agency; Southborough Emergency Management Agency; town of Grafton and Wachusett Mountain Ski Area
Cautious
