This week’s storm could rival Blizzard of ’78

Region – The National Weather Service forecast office in Taunton has issued a Blizzard Watch for the portion of Massachusetts east of Worcester County, from Monday night into Tuesday night. They are looking for 18 to 24 inches of snow, winds gusting up to 70 mph and very cold temperatures in all but the Cape and Islands. Here is a link to the NWS office web page.

I think they are correct in issuing this watch, and further expect the Blizzard Watch and subsequent warnings to be expanded to the west perhaps to near the Connecticut River Valley. This storm is the real deal, and has the potential to turn out to be one of the historic storm events of our lifetime, even rivaling the Blizzard of 1978. Preparations for the storm should be carried out today or early tomorrow morning for areas east of the Connecticut River, as conditions will rapidly deteriorate later on Monday. The intensity and impact of this storm could become dangerous to life threatening for about a 24 hour period, from late Monday afternoon to late Tuesday afternoon.

Snow should move into our area in earnest by 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM tomorrow evening, but could be preceded by flurries earlier in the afternoon. Snow will become moderate to heavy with blizzard conditions and continue through the night and most of Tuesday. It will be very cold, with temperatures likely holding in the low to mid teens throughout the period. The cold temperatures will lead to a high snow to liquid ratio, probably something like a 20 inches to snow from 1 inch of liquid, instead of the average ratio of 10 to 1. Snow depths in all of central Massachusetts could reach 15 to as much 25 inches in isolated areas. There will be frequent white out conditions from the combination of falling snow and severe drifting caused by winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph. Travel will be very dangerous if not impossible during the height of the storm. Due to the powdery nature of the snow, it will not stick to trees and power lines, and I am not expecting anything other than very isolated power outages in central Massachusetts. By late Tuesday afternoon snow will be winding down, but light snow or flurries could continue well into Tuesday night. Our weather should improve Wednesday.

Along the coastal plain, the Cape and Islands, conditions will deteriorate later Monday afternoon and it is likely that blizzard conditions will set in soon after the start of the snow. Temperatures will be higher right along the coast, and on the Cape and Islands, and it is possible that rain could mix with the snow from time to time. While this will hold accumulations down in those areas it will cause the snow to stick to trees and power lines. Buffeted by northeast winds of 35 to 50 mph which will occasionally gust to hurricane force, snow laden trees, large limbs and power lines are likely to come down. Extensive and prolonged power outages are likely in these areas. Snow accumulations in these areas will likely be held down to 8 to 16 inches due to rain periodically mixing in.

Coastal flooding is a real concern. With very strong northeast winds, over a long fetch for an extended period of time, seas will become very high, likely up to 40 feet. Continuous battering by such high waves over several tide cycles will cause extensive beach erosion and coastal flooding is a concern in susceptible areas. Winds will become north to northwest during Tuesday night and begin to diminish somewhat, but strong northwest winds will continue Wednesday.

This storm will create very dangerous to life threatening conditions at sea. Mariners should make preparations to head for a safe harbor if possible and if they are in port, not to venture out until the storm has passed. As the storm winds down, the threat of freezing spray in addition to falling snow exists if the arctic air progresses well offshore.

Welcome to the beginning of the period of wild winter weather I mentioned a few days ago. I will update this situation later this afternoon. And by the way, we can look forward to more snow along about Thursday night.