By James Arnold, Weather Specialist
Region – The guidance for the approaching storm continues to be all over the place, but the trend is to take it a bit further to the east than at this time yesterday. The American model (GFS) presents the weakest solution with the storm center further to the east and the storm itself not all that strong. I am not ready to buy into this solution for a couple of reasons. First, the Euro and most ensemble members keep a stronger storm closer to the coast. Second, the GFS seems to have a “blind spot” where it will often see something several days out, weaken or lose it entirely 3 to 5 days from the event and find it again around 2 days from the event. I suspect this is what will happen in this case. Attached is one projection of a potential storm track from the National Weather Service Taunton Office web site. This track would bring the storm close to the “Benchmark”, which would likely result in a major winter storm for southern New England.
What this means for central Massachusetts is that we, in my opinion, are still under the gun for a significant winter storm. Light snow should begin to work into our area sometime early Sunday afternoon and continue Sunday night, occasionally becoming moderate to heavy before tapering off and ending late Monday morning, likely between 10 and noon. If, as some models speculate, the storm is a bit weaker and a little further east than previously thought, that would result in a somewhat colder air column and our snow likely would be a bit more powdery – lessening the threat for tree damage and power outages. It would also bring snow closer to the coast and indeed the Cape and Islands could have a plowable snowfall were this to be the case. In those locations the snow would be of the wet, heavy variety, and with stronger winds along the coast tree damage and power outages would be more likely.
Given the still uncertain storm track, (where a wobble to the right or the left could be significant) it still appears that the Shrewsbury area will experience a potentially disruptive early spring snowstorm. Snow totals should still be in the 6 to 12 inch range, pretty much from the Connecticut River Valley to the coastal plain. The immediate shoreline, the Cape and Islands will likely see totals in the 2 to 5 inch range. The National Weather Service has just issued a winter storm watch. Here is a link to that message: https://webmail.townisp.com/h/search?su=1&si=0&so=0&sc=39633&st=conversation&action=view&cid=-69988
James M. Arnold is a Weather Specialist working with Shrewsbury Emergency Management Agency; town of Princeton; Worcester Emergency Communications and Emergency Management Agency; Southborough Emergency Management Agency; town of Grafton and Wachusett Mountain Ski Area