File Photo/Jane Keller Gordon
Region may get 5-10″ of snow Sunday/Monday
By James M. Arnold, Weather Specialist
Region – This has certainly been a winter with very few emails from me regarding weather threats, but this email has two threats to discuss. The first one is for late this afternoon and concerns a springtime occurance in southern New England, namely thunderstorms. A warm front has passed to our north and we are seeing increasing temperatures and that will continue until early evening, when our temperatures will reach about 70°, with a few areas reaching the low to mid 70s. A sharp cold front will be approaching from the northwest late this afternoon and it will trigger showers and thunderstorms as it clashes with and displaces the warm air then in place. Some of these storms have the potential to become severe, and the Storm Prediction Center has put the western half of southern New England, southwest New Hampshire and the southern 2/3rds of Vermont in a zone with a 5 percent chance of winds reaching the severe thunderstorm threshold of 58 mph. The SPC has also placed westernmost Southern New England in a zone with a 2 percent chance of a tornado…while this is a very small chance, it is not zero. Keep an eye on the sky for late afternoon thunderstorm activity and keep up to date on the latest forecasts to see if any severe weather is expected.
Our approaching cold front also plays into the second issue to be monitored, a potential snowstorm for the beginning of next week. A weak low will be approaching the Ohio River valley on Sunday, where it will effectively dissipate, but it will contribute energy to the development of a secondary coastal storm off the mid Atlantic coast later on Sunday. From here it looks to me that this storm will move off to the northeast fairly close to the coast, taking a track somewhat west of the Benchmark (70°N/40°W) before moving to the east of Cape Cod and out to sea.
The cold front approaching this afternoon will usher in some pretty cold air which will be with us for a few days and give us temperatures just cold enough to produce snow. If what I think the track will be verifies, it is one that favors a substantial snowfall over most inland areas of southern New England. Should there be no track shifts or temperature anomalies, we in the Shrewsbury area could be looking at a possible snowfall of 5 to 10 inches. Lesser amounts are expected along the coastal plain, the Cape and Islands, where a minor accumulation is possible before a change to rain occurs. East of the Route 495 corridor and below the southern Massachusetts border 2 to 4 inches can be expected. To the north and west of these areas is where the deepest accumulation will be found, ranging from 3 to 5 inches south of the Mass Pike with up to 10 inches to our north and west in the higher country. Some localized amounts of 12 inches are likely as well. With an accumulation of wet, heavy snow there is always the danger of tree damage and that could contribute to some isolated power outages. Fortunately, wind does not seem to be a factor at this time, but that could change. Clearing and cool weather will follow on Tuesday and another storm will be on our doorstep by Thursday. Check on the latest forecasts on radio, TV, the internet and your NOAA weather radio as we draw closer to this storm.
James M. Arnold is a Weather Specialist who formerly worked with Shrewsbury Emergency Management Agency; town of Princeton; Worcester Emergency Communications and Emergency Management Agency; Southborough Emergency Management Agency; town of Grafton and Wachusett Mountain Ski Area
